從二月底俄羅斯入侵烏剋蘭到如今已經接近三個月；平心而論 儘管有許多西方國傢以不同方式解囊濟助 張競／烏剋蘭永遠別指望「白騎士」來救 - 趣味新聞網

▲張競轉述一位西方媒體朋友對俄烏衝突的感想認為，烏剋蘭別指望「白騎士」來救。（圖／達誌影像／美聯社）

文／張競

有位西方媒體朋友問我對於俄烏衝突感想；我迴答說：「依據目前西方社會難容異見氛圍下，我的想法恐怕是政治極不正確；您問我也是白問，因為您的媒體絕對不會刊登我的觀點。」下麵是我的拙見，不知您是否同意？

從二月底俄羅斯入侵烏剋蘭到如今已經接近三個月；平心而論，儘管有許多西方國傢以不同方式解囊濟助，但西方絕對無法成為解救烏剋蘭之白騎士(救星)。不論如何盡力，若不實際揮軍派兵入境參戰，所有由美國與其他西方盟友所提供之援助，隻能將戰事繼續延長，但恐怕並非終結衝突妥善之計。

到目前為止，西方各國是否真心願意承擔救援烏剋蘭重責實難論斷。但就吾人所見，西方涉入俄烏雙方衝突，其實並未全心投入，同時亦顯然有所取捨；並未以斷然手法正本清源化解危機，反而是拐彎抹角企圖削弱俄羅斯，並讓烏剋蘭陷身於長期衝突淪為砲灰。

▲中華戰略研究學會研究員張競。（圖／記者任以芳攝）

此場衝突對於多個麵對強鄰威脅入侵之國有何啟發呢？此等弱小國傢將能從烏剋蘭付齣流血與毀傷慘痛代價之經驗中，獲得何種教訓呢？最重要之啟示或許就是要在戰爭衝突真正爆發前，預先化解正在浮現之威脅。

世道不寧，吾人永遠必須麵對人間惡徒；天下威脅處處無所不在，不論其係傳統類型抑或是非傳統模式，吾人國傢安全時時麵對考驗。吾人須不斷盡一切努力化解各項矛盾與威脅，不論是從實力上使其有所顧忌，不敢輕越雷池，抑或是在敵欲訴諸武力相嚮傷害吾人之前，針對其意圖化解敵意消弭歧見。

不要指望他人作為救星前來搭救；就算真有人願意前來相挺，天下也沒有白吃的午餐；到頭來還是要在未來某個時間付齣代價買單。天下隻有自己最可靠；在戰略算計上最愚蠢，並且亦是最糟糕之失誤就是「太遲」。

及早採取防範應對措施，永遠會比等到衝突爆發後在採取應變處置作為好得多。不去藉由外交作為前瞻可能浮現之危機，卻將未來命運押注在看起來會扮演救星者之空口無憑吹噓承諾，根本就是自取滅亡，但這卻是烏剋蘭政府高層到現在還看不透想不清楚之無情現實。
#忠言逆耳良藥苦口嚮來如此

英文原文如下：

It is almost three months of severe conflicts since Russia invaded Ukraine in late February. Frankly speaking, the West is definitely not the white knight for Ukraine though many of the western countries do provided assistances in various forms. Nevertheless, without actually deploying armed forces and substantially involved in the operational efforts, all those aids provided by the United States and other western allies to Ukraine could only extend the warfighting duration but might not be necessarily a proper approach to terminate the conflict eventually.

Whether or not the West may have a true intention to act as a white knight to save Ukraine is still yet to see. As far as we can see, the western involvement in the conflict between Moscow and Kiev is limited and selectively engagement. There was no fundamental and decisive action taken to defuse the crisis but only employing many indirect schemes to weaken the Russia and making Ukrainians as gun ashes in a prolonged armed conflict.

How this conflict may possibly inspire many states facing relatively powerful and potential neighboring threats? What will be the lessons probably learned by those small nations from Ukraine’s experiences after paying the cost of blood and damages? The most important teaching perhaps should be defusing the emerging threats before any conflict actually erupted. We need to face many black knights all the time. There are various threats, either conventional or non-conventional, towards our national security. We should always pay our efforts to neutralize those black knights, either towards their capabilities or towards their intentions, before them becoming so determinant resulting to force to hurt us.

There is no white knight to save you. Should anyone actually come to support you, neither can any free lunch be available. It is always necessary to pay for it sometimes in the future. You can only rely on yourself. The stupidest and worst error ever in strategic calculus is “too late”. Preventive measures in advance are always much better any contingency schemes employed after conflict actually happened. Never foresee the emerging crisis stimulated from its diplomatic maneuvers but to bet its future fate on those illusive commitments from any supposedly white knight is a suicidal choice that the Ukraine leadership still fails to understand till now.

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